A New Rigorous Study Shows Rise’s Battleground State Voter Turnout Program is Among Nation’s Best
Atlanta, GA–Today Rise released the results of a new study showing that Rise’s get out the vote program is one of the nation’s most effective for turning out voters, especially young voters of color. Building on a previous study of Rise’s impact in Georgia, this research analyzed Rise’s impact in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin during the 2022 midterm elections. The research was conducted by TargetSmart in the spring of 2023. Their study contains two components:
The first study uses an artificial comparison group to evaluate the entirety of Rise’s relational organizing program. This program includes face to face conversations, help making a plan to vote, and following up with voters during GOTV. This study found a 15.9 percentage point increase in turnout among voters reached by Rise when comparing the artificial control group with Rise’s audience. The largest effect size was among young voters of color with a 30.8 percentage point effect for Black youth ages 18-29.
The second study is a randomized controlled trial (RCT)–the most rigorous possible study design–and evaluates only Rise’s “chase” program of personalized follow ups with voters during GOTV. The RCT found a 4.1 percentage point effect size, a very large effect in an RCT. A typical effect size for a robust get out the vote program is 1-2 percentage points. To quote the study: “Typically, high-salience elections like a national midterm see smaller turnout effect sizes. To find a 4.1 point effect in a midterm is remarkably large.
In 2022, Rise helped over 100,000 young people make a plan to vote using this relational organizing model. In the study, Rise’s audience was 11 percentage points more racially diverse than the electorate overall and 53 percentage points more likely to identify as a young voter 18-29.
“Rise’s youth vote program blows up the stereotype that young people are apathetic and not voting,” said co-founder and CEO Max Lubin. “This study adds to the evidence that we’re closing the gap when it comes to youth turnout. We’re leading not only one of the most effective youth voter turnout programs in the nation, but also one of the most effective programs period.”
“We’re proud to be a Rise partner, providing technology that powers their incredible relational work,” said Alex Niemczewski, CEO and co-founder of BallotReady. “Rise continues to challenge expectations for what’s possible through their tech-enabled relational approach.
“Rise has made extraordinary strides toward building a more equitable democracy, and it’s inspiring to see the significant impact of their work,” said Joe Garland, Director of Analytics at TargetSmart. “Their innovative strategies for engaging young, hard-to-reach potential voters have been remarkably effective, and should serve as a blueprint for how campaigns can affect meaningful change in the future.”